Economic Outlook 2025 Forecasts Growth for St. John’s CMA

The text "Economic Outlook 2025" with a picture of the report on a dark green background

The City of St. John’s has released its Economic Outlook 2025 report, which provides data on several economic indicators for the St. John's CMA including: GDP, labour market, household income, retail sales, housing starts, and population. The report anticipates overall growth in the coming year, driven by gains in the oil sector and housing market, with steady population growth continuing despite broader economic pressures.

“This year’s Economic Outlook reflects both the resilience and complexity of our local economy,” said Ward 4 Councillor Tom Davis, Council Lead for Economic Development. “We’re seeing strong momentum in energy and housing, and while there are some labour market shifts, the fundamentals are sound. Tariffs continue to be a concern for businesses, and we are happy to provide some insight into how tariffs may impact the St. John’s metro area specifically in this report”.

Highlights from Economic Outlook 2025:

GDP Growth: The St. John’s CMA economy is expected to grow by 5.3%, led by increased oil production.
Housing Market Rebound: Housing starts are forecast to rise by 21.5%, reaching 1,058 units, as interest rates ease and demand picks up.
Rising Housing Prices: Average home prices are up nearly 11% over last year.
Population Growth Continues: A 0.4% population increase is projected, continuing a modest upward trend.
Labour Market Adjustment: Employment is expected to decline by 0.4%, mainly due to the completion of the West White Rose project.
Income & Retail Sales: Household income growth slows to 2.1%; retail sales rise by 3%, reflecting broader economic moderation.
Tariff Impact Limited: This report includes a special feature on the impact of tariffs which concludes that the St. John’s CMA is less directly affected by U.S. tariffs than many other regions in Canada. Only about 5% of local jobs are tied to exports to the U.S.

The Economic Outlook report also summarizes the final 2024 economic indicators for the St. John’s CMA, prepared by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador’s Department of Finance.

The Tourism, Culture and Business Growth Division provides a variety of economic and statistical information, including an Economic Review and Outlook in addition to a monthly Economic Snapshot.

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