The City of St. John’s has released its Economic Outlook 2026 report, which provides data on key economic indicators for the St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), including GDP, labour market trends, population, housing starts, household income and inflation. The report anticipates continued economic growth, driven by strength in the goods-producing sector and increased offshore oil production.

“The 2026 Economic Outlook shows that St. John’s continues to experience steady economic growth,” said Mayor Danny Breen. “At the same time, we recognize that affordability remains a significant concern for many residents. While growth is important, we know that rising housing costs, inflationary pressures and broader economic uncertainty continue to impact households. This report provides valuable insight into both the opportunities and challenges facing our community as we plan for the future.”

Highlights from Economic Outlook 2026:

• GDP Growth: The St. John’s CMA economy is expected to grow by 4.8% in 2026, led by the goods-producing sector and increased offshore oil production. Excluding oil and gas, the economy is forecast to grow modestly by 0.3%.
• Population Growth Continues: Population is projected to reach 245,617, an increase of 0.9%. The working-age population is expected to rise by 1.1% to 208,600.
• Housing Market Remains Active: Housing starts are expected to increase by 11.3% to 1,155 units.
• Home Prices Remain Elevated: The MLS® Home Price Index benchmark price averaged $394,625 from January to April 2026, up 8.4% compared to the same period in 2025. St. John’s continues to rank among Canada’s stronger-performing housing markets in early 2026.
• Labour Market Trends: Small employment gains are expected in the service sector, particularly in health care and education. The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 7.6%, as labour force growth outpaces employment growth.
• Household Income Growth: Household income is forecast to increase by 2.9%, supported by higher wages, self-employment income, and government transfers.
• Inflation Pressures: Inflation is expected to accelerate due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to higher energy prices and increased costs for food, transportation and production.
• Economic Risks: The outlook assumes existing U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports remain in place. However, ongoing trade negotiations, including the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement review, along with global conflict, oil price volatility and project timing changes present potential risks to the forecast.

2025 Economic Performance Summary

The report also includes final 2025 indicators for the St. John’s CMA. Overall, economic performance generally aligned with, and in some areas exceeded, the projections outlined in Economic Outlook 2025. Population growth was stronger than anticipated, while household income and retail sales also outperformed forecasts, demonstrating continued resilience in the local economy. Highlights include:

• GDP increased by 4.4%, compared with a projected increase of 5.3%.
• Household income grew by 3.2%, exceeding the projected growth of 2.1%.
• Retail sales increased by 3.4% to $6.1 billion, slightly above the forecast of 3.0%.
• The unemployment rate increased to 7.2%, reflecting labour market adjustments anticipated following the completion of major projects.
• Population in the St. John’s metro area increased by 1.3% to 243,500, surpassing the projected increase of 0.4%.
• Housing starts increased by nearly 20%, driven by lower interest rates and strong population growth, closely aligning with the projected increase of 21.5%.

The Economic Outlook 2026 complements the City’s ongoing economic reporting, which includes an annual Economic Review and Outlook as well as monthly Economic Snapshots prepared by the Tourism, Culture and Business Growth Division.

Note: The St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a Statistics Canada geographically defined area including St. John’s and neighbouring communities.

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